Demand Planning Articles

The Argument for Using Smoothie with SAP DP
What This Article Covers  Ease of Doing Things Versus the Ability to do Things: The Problem with Feature and Functionality Comparisons The Logic for Using Both SAP DP and Demand Works Smoothie Introduction Most of the articles and research at Brightwork Research & Analysis are ...
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The Problem with POS Data for Supply Chain Forecasting
Executive Summary POS information is often proposed to be used to improve forecast accuracy. The evidence does not support that using POS does what vendors and consultants say it does. Introduction Using POS data is a frequently proposed way to improve forecast accuracy. Software vendors ...
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The Problem with Machine Learning for Supply Chain Forecasting
Executive Summary Machine Learning is a major area of interest currently and proponents of machine learning are proposing pulling investments from univariate statistical forecasting. There is a competition among vendors to make silly statements around machine learning. Introduction to Machine Learning The term machine learning ...
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The Core Forecasting Parameters with Alfa Beta Gamma
Executive Summary We cover the core forecasting parameters of alpha, beta and gamma. Alpha, beta and gamma have specific definitions that are assisted by renaming the parameters. Introduction Forecast parameters control the methods within statistical forecasting systems. A specific combination of parameters converts a forecast ...
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How to Understand What is an Outlier in Forecasting
Executive Summary Outliers are easily identified in applications, but the question is how to deal with them. The questions to ask regarding when outliers should be removed. Introduction The question of what is an outlier and outlier removal is always a topic if keen interest ...
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The Problem with Promotion Management Software
What This Article Covers On Trade Promotion Management Software The Lack of Quantification of the Costs of Making Them Adjustment Whether a Range Can be Applied Promotion Adjustment Calculator On Trade Promotion Management Software Software vendors ranging from JDA to IBM to Junction Solutions make promotion ...
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Test Results: Quarterly Versus Monthly Forecasting Buckets
Executive Summary This test was performed to test a common proposal by customers that smaller forecasting buckets lead to higher forecast accuracy. This test was performed with time-based forecasting disaggregation to enable an apple to apple comparison. Introduction It is common for companies to consider ...
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How to Understand Test Results: Monthly Versus Weekly Forecasting Buckets
Executive Summary This study was performed for a customer to verify a client's hypothesis that weekly forecasting improves forecast accuracy versus monthly forecasting. The common reasons for moving from a monthly to a weekly forecasting bucket are covered as is the problem a best-fit forecasting ...
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How do Complex Forecasting Methods Stack Up?
Executive Summary History shows some interesting insights as to complex methods. There are frequent misunderstandings regarding forecastability which leads to the misuse of naive methods. There are important incentives that promote more complex forecasting methods or more simple. Introduction Interestingly the forecasting method has tended to ...
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The Common Problem with Sales Forecasting Bias
Executive Summary Sales forecasts are known as the most biased forecasts. They usually degrade the quality of the statistical forecast, yet they continue to be used because sales have the power to force supply chain organization to use this lowest of quality inputs. This salesman ...
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How to Best Understand Forecastability
Executive Summary Forecastability is an important concept of forecasting. We cover how the law of large numbers can be used to improve supply chain design. Forecastable/Unforecastable, Forecastability, Forecast Segmentation Forecastability This is important as the terms forecastable and unforecastable are confusing to people. The first thing ...
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Gartner's Mistake on Big Data Forecasting
What This Article Covers Gartner as an Information Broker Gartner's Statements on Forecasting The Big Data Bubble Why Gartner is So Wrong on This Topic What is Stocked? The Complication of Customer Forecasts The Normalcy of Using Customer Data A Conspicuous Lack of Evidence for ...
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Is Your CRM System Increasing Sales Forecast Error?
What this Article Covers Comparing CRM to Other Application Categories Forecasting the Achilles Heel of CRM Systems What do You Get in CRM Forecasting Functionality? Introduction This article discusses one strong reason why CRM systems have such a problem earning a positive return on investment, ...
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Is Your CRM System Decreasing Forecast Accuracy?
What This Article Covers CRM and Forecasting Forecasting as a Relative Term Introduction CRM is an interesting software category. Before SaaS, and Salesforce, on-premises CRM had one of the highest failure rates of any application. Siebel was, of course, the market leader (Siebel was acquired by Oracle ...
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How to Forecast Low Volume, High Dollar Items
Executive Summary Sales forecasting is little covered in books. It is necessary to understand the limitations of low volume sales forecasting. Sales forecasting output can be used for supply chain forecasting, however, it must be checked and normally adjusted for sales or quota bias. Introduction ...
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